Even though the majority of the newly elected Greek cabinet
is staunchly pro-euro and pro-bailout, would Greece be better off leaving the
Eurozone?
By: Ringo Bones
Before the Greek pro-euro and pro-bailout political parties
were elected into office in Greece’s recent election, many tenured economists –
strangely none of them appeared to be Greek – suggested that Greece should
leave the euro and reintroduce the good old Greek drachma as the best solution
to the country’s ongoing debt crisis. These “tenured economists” oft cite on
how the Argentine government solved the Argentine economic crisis of 1999 to
2002 in which the Argentine government drastically devaluated their own
currency – the Argentine peso – in order to end its own debt crisis; a method
which surpasses the dire expectations of economists at that time. The question
now is: Will the “Argentine Method” work in solving Greece’s ongoing debt
crisis?
Before we proceed further, here’s a scope of the current
Greek debt crisis – every Greek man, woman and child now owes 31,000 euros to
the EU and other foreign lenders. An epic problem in which a few years of EU
sanctioned austerity measures seems unable to solve. The Greek government’s
rationale for joining the Eurozone when the euro was first introduced back in
the New Year’s Eve of 2002 was that it was hope that EU members with weak
economies – especially Greece – would be helped by the more economically
prosperous EU members. Strange as it seems, Greece’s current dire economic
situation mirrors that what it had experienced back in 1998. But will a Greek
euro exit and the reintroduction of the good old Greek drachma and then
drastically devaluating it – akin to how Argentina solve their own economic
crisis back in 1999 to 2002 – be the ideal solution to Greece’s current debt
crisis?
Strange as it seems, the BBC sends some of its field
reporters to Greece a few months before the recent election in order to
interview everyday Greeks experiencing their country’s crippling financial
crisis first hand. The report had shown that a little over 50% of Greeks
believe that exciting the Eurozone and reintroducing the Greek drachma won’t
solve its current economic crisis because they believe that their current
economic problem is primarily caused by the collusion of corrupt Greek
politicians and big financial firms – both Greek and foreign – not paying their
full tax rates. Over half of the Greeks say that a reintroduction of the old
Greek drachma and then drastically devaluating it will only give license to
corrupt Greek politicians to print their own money.
2 comments:
A Greek euro exit would cause cross-border payment chaos and Eurozone wide bank runs just to name a few problems. On the first 48 hours of Greece exiting the euro, the European Central Bank (ECB) will be too busy preventing the financial collapse of Spain and other "economically challenged" Eurozone member countries, and will undermine the credibility of the single European currency.
Devaluating a sovereign country's own currency is a proven way to make one's exports more cost-competitive to the competition and allows borrowing funds a bit more easier, but the case of Greece and its citizens' lack of confidence of the largely corrupt incumbent government - sticking to the euro could be the only viable option.
Post a Comment